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Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Coercive Diplomacy

Contention for and diplomacy based on natural resources has firmly set itself down at the center of international relations. While a third world war, as perceived against the backdrop of the previous two, might not be imminent in the near future, the cauldron has begun to bubble for sure. In fact, it now seems that a full scale war where every country is at war with some other country at the same time and soldiers are making normandish landings onto their graveyards is no longer a possibility. Satellite imagery and information networks have resulted in militia being able to focus aggression with hitherto unknown accuracy, rendering brute-force attacks obsolete.
So we have Pakistan niggling at us in Poonch, Hamas firing shells at Israel and Israel responding with air raids (no landings or invasions mind you), US and the UN undertaking "peace missions" all over the world - and YET, we never say the world is in a state of war !!
Coming back to diplomacy based on natural resources, Russia recently presented us all with a glaring example of how important it is to hold the world by its neck if anyone, except the US and its allies, needs to get things done his way. Russia turned off gas supplies to Europe for a full one week over bilateral disputes with its minnow neighbour Ukraine. A bilateral difference balooned into a continental crisis which was further exacerbated by the extremely chilly weather in Europe over the week. Gas supplies have been resumed from Russia's side (allegedly) but it is now being alleged that Ukraine has "shut off the taps" at their end !! Is this still natural gas we are talking about ?
Anyways, coming closer to home I wonder what natural (or other) resources may India use as a weapon in such an international crisis? Oil or Natural Gas cannot be one of them for sure. We are among the top 10 importers of oil in the world. Even in refined oil export terms we are not a noticeable player though the sector has been growing well. In fact our overall share in world trade continues to hover below 2%. So no matter what we stop giving to the world, it cannot be of any consequence any which way. Someone somewhere is producing and selling more of the same thing. We might stop exporting software services - but that will hurt the domestic economy far more than the world's. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are able to play a bigger role in international politics because of their stranglehold on oil. But India has nothing it can stop giving to Pakistan to stall its economy and coerce it into action against terrorists.
I think every country that wishes to be taken seriously in the post modern world has to be controlling something that every one else needs. Call it a strategic weapon or what you will. But I think building the nuclear bomb can help only that much !!

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